The UK-Australia and UK-New Zealand trade deals will come into force at midnight on 31 May 2023. Both the UK-Australia and UK-New Zealand trade deals will result in Australia and New Zealand obtaining tariff free access to the UK market via tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for beef, lamb and dairy as soon as the agreement comes into effect. The volumes of product under the TRQs will increase gradually over five years for dairy, eventually resulting in complete liberalisation – the removal of tariffs.
For the UK-Australia trade deal, the results showed UK imports from Australia increasing by 1,100 tonnes (254%) for cheese.
For the UK-New Zealand trade deal, the modelling results showed UK imports from New Zealand increasing by 260 tonnes (194%) for cheese and 1,700 tonnes (209%) for butter.
Analysis and trade modelling results suggest that the UK is unlikely to be flooded with imports from these two countries as a result of these trade deals. This is because Australia and New Zealand already have access to lucrative markets in Asia, for example, and, all things remaining equal, are unlikely to divert product from these markets to the UK just because they will have tariff-free access. However, if circumstances change, then there is potential for more product to be sent to the UK, so there may be harmful consequences in the future.